Winter 2015 / 2016

[SWWW]

Originally Posted by Jeremy Shockey

nice chart this morning from ECM shows block still strong on Sun 17th.
( p.s Trev , how do i make attachments larger ? any tips )

If you do this, it is better to post links from metociel than wetter as the wetter ones change with every run

[Jeremy Shockey]

Many thanks Gareth.

Yes , Great ECM again this evening , UKMO too.

( and AO trending very negative indeed ......similar to 2010 )

[SWWW]

off the chart!

all signs looking good

Originally Posted by Jeremy Shockey

Many thanks Gareth.

Yes , Great ECM again this evening , UKMO too.

( and AO trending very negative indeed ......similar to 2010 )

[Surrey Snow]

How many boxes of Kleenex do I need to buy?


SS

[Jeremy Shockey]

not looking quite so good today for the South . Deep cold taking too long to penetrate. Lets hope for upgrades over the next few days

[Surrey Snow]

Originally Posted by Jeremy Shockey

not looking quite so good today for the South .

SS

[SWWW]

Originally Posted by Surrey Snow

How many boxes of Kleenex do I need to buy?


SS

Stick to razor blades

[SWWW]

The major cold is missing from the models today.

GFS output is erratic beyond Tuesday and is best ignored.

ECM offers good hope for some good snow action next week (although the magic snow line also known as the M4 and north of spring to mind)

The picture is messy, but It won't be mild and there will be snow about.

Maybe not a classic cold snap, but a cold snap none the less with the risk of snow to a lot of areas.

Although the outlook looks less optimistic, I believe we will be on the verge of a significant cold spell, it might just take a couple of weeks to get there with spells of slightly below average temps, occasional sleet/hill snow from next weekend before we look east for the beast.

That's my current thoughts, after looking at the data available.

Cheers
SWWW

[SWWW]

Look east. I see a battle developing.

[SWWW]

I've spent a few hours looking through all the data available and I'm at a halfway house.

Experience and education say I should favour a cold set up, but the NWP models (the big ones) don't agree.

When I mentioned the return of winter 4-5 days back, I did not base it on NWP output (although I admit I did wait to see the charts before coming on)

There is a big wobble regarding a cold snap next week, but, my interest was first sparked by factors that pointed to the 2nd half of winter being well below average over Western Europe, and looking at all available data this still remains the case.

Obviously the North Sea separates us from mainland Europe, and our positioning to the west of the southern continent encourages the placement of warmer air across our shores, so European cold does not mean UK cold.

However, strong WAA over Greenland is still favourable, followed by SSW,m. This should give a 'locked in' cold pattern.

The NWP today has lowered heights over Greenland, moving it west. This has allowed heights to build over Spain (as it removes the cut off low) and it is this that the models are struggling with.

My hunch, is that the models are calling it right, but (and here is the thing) as the pattern moves west, it opens the door to a classic 80s easterly and this is what I based my thoughts on earlier.

There is a definite change to the weather coming, and I'm confident the latter part of winter will deliver below average temperatures. This is because if plan A goes tits up, it opens the door to plan b. It is rare in these parts for there to be 2 routes to cold.

The next 4-5 weeks will be interesting. How long will it take for the cold to arrive, and how long will it last?

As much as our climate annoys me, we live in such a great location for all sorts of weather, from heatwaves, to big freezes, from droughts to floods. Always something interesting going on

Cheers

SWWW