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Old 1 Week Ago   #1
Jeremy Shockey
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Default Winter 17/18

Fri - Sat looks like it could be interesting for you in Surrey Trevor
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Old 1 Week Ago   #2
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

Wow .....cross model agreement ....it is going to get cold from 7th Dec onwards ......even for the South
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Old 1 Week Ago   #3
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

What's the probability of the snow event happening Jeremy, it's still a fair way out, obviously cross model agreement is good but much can change between now and then.


No need to sugar coat it, I am a realist.


Cheers


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Old 1 Week Ago   #4
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

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Originally Posted by Surrey Snow View Post
What's the probability of the snow event happening Jeremy ?
Hi Trevor , i think there is no doubt that it will get very cold from Friday to Monday with Arctic air flooding South and some very low 850 hPa temps ( conducive for snow to all levels ) ....So i'm about 80 % sure that we will get the real cold in !

It may turn out to be a rain to snow event initially ( with snow on the back edge ) . There should then be a few possibilities of troughs coming South in an unstable Arctic Northerly flow with heavy snow showers for many ( all the way to Surrey in fact !) .

I know that you often do not do well out of a Northerly in Surrey , but on this occasion it will be more of a North Westerly to start with and i think the really cold air has an excellent chance to flood all the way down to the South coast.

As long as we dont get a " toppler " it looks like we could remain in a blocked pattern for at least a week. In this case you have lots of excellent opportunities for snow in Surrey as various troughs bang in to the embedded cold air.

Overall summary would be a 55% chance of snow for you Trevor ( but as you say , its still a long way off at the moment in meteorological time )

All the best JS
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Old 1 Week Ago   #5
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

Thank you Jeremy.


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Old 6 Days Ago   #6
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

Nothing worse than a "toppler" except maybe a Bartlett High!


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Old 15 Hours Ago   #7
Jeremy Shockey
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

Did you get any snow in your part of Surrey Trevor ? .......i know it was close. We had a very small amount in Yorkshire .......the bloody Midlands took it all
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Old 11 Hours Ago   #8
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Default Re: Winter 17/18

We had a little Jeremy but it was alternating between snow and rain this morning.


More generally snow this afternoon but did not really settle. This then petered out.


Not far from here at High Wycombe they had 16cm of lying snow.


Oh well, maybe next time.


Cheers


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